Two recently released reports outline past and potential future enrollment trends in California.

With enrollment declines taking place in almost three-quarters of California school districts in the last five years and the trend expected to continue in the next decade, Factors and Future Projections for K–12 Declining Enrollment and its corresponding brief published by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) explore the reasons for declining enrollment in K-12.

Among the findings, the report warns that enrollment declines could stir up competitive pressures between neighboring districts as they seek to attract students.

Enrollment-related competition is the subject of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute’s report, The Education Competition Index: Quantifying competitive pressure in America’s 125 largest school districts — which found that a majority of the 125 largest school districts in the United States face little competition for their students.

Both reports concur that competition can result in higher-quality services and educational opportunities for students, though the PPIC report cautions that in California, “declines due to demographic changes mean that some districts will ‘lose twice’ — once from fewer children living in their boundaries and again from some of these students attending school elsewhere.”

By 2032, the California Department of Finance is predicting enrollment will dip below 5.2 million public school students while the federal government projects the state’s enrollment will slip to 5 million. In 2022–23, total K-12 enrollment was 5.85 million, according to data from the California Department of Education. Enrollment peaked at more than 6.3 million students in 2004.

Future declines would impact district finances, operations, staffing and facilities.

Key findings that PPIC researchers note in the resources include:

• Declines in enrollment are anticipated in almost all regions of the state in the coming decade.
• Counties with higher numbers of English learner (EL), Asian, Black and Latino students are expecting larger declines in enrollment.
• Though most districts that lose students don’t close schools, those that do typically close campuses that serve higher rates of low-income and EL students and have lower test scores.
• Declining birth rates and net migration out of California are some factors exacerbating the situation.

All but two regions, the Sierra and Northern Central Valley, will likely face enrollment declines by 2022–23 with Greater Los Angeles, San Diego/Imperial and the Bay Area regions expected to see the most significant drops.

“While projections come with some uncertainty, the state knows how many TK–12 students may enter the system in the next five years from birth records alone, meaning that there is less scope for enrollment trends to change considerably without large shifts in people migrating into the state,” the report states. In addition to uncertainties around migration patterns, private school enrollment could continue to evolve in the post-pandemic environment and impact public schools.

“Providing districts with adequate guidance and support to make efficient and equitable cuts will be key to ensuring any declines do not adversely affect student opportunities,” according to the report.

There are some potentially positive outcomes from declining enrollment, such as an easing of capacity constraints on school facilities allowing space for offerings like transitional kindergarten, community schools and after-school programs. More per-pupil funding is also possible.

In addition to state-level guidance, assistance from county offices of education and professional development opportunities for school budget officers centered on how to effectively manage declines “will be key to ensuring student services and educational opportunities do not diminish.”

Recommendations for policymakers include:

• Providing more assistance and information to districts on effective and efficient downsizing.
• Prioritizing equity in decisions on school closures.
• Avoiding insulating districts from enrollment declines via additional funding.

Public school systems compete with fellow public school districts, charter schools, private schools homeschooling and other alternative programs for attendees, and that competition benefits student achievement, The Education Competition Index found.

The authors note that research is mounting “that competition improves achievement in traditional public schools.” The report states that “districts that don’t have to compete for traditionally disadvantaged students can afford to take them for granted, which increases the odds that they will be poorly served.”

At a national level, in the decade between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of first- through eighth-grade students who were not enrolled in a district-run school increased from 15 percent to 18 percent. Researchers found that this “was driven by the growth of charter schools, which more than doubled their market share from 3 percent to 6.5 percent.” In spring 2020, nearly half of students in that age range who didn’t attend a district school were enrolled in private schools and roughly one in five were homeschooled.

In 2020, white students (19 percent) were the most likely to enroll in non-district schools followed by their Black (18 percent), Asian (17 percent) and Hispanic peers (14 percent).

Of the 125 LEAs considered, 10 were located in California: Corona-Norco, Fresno, Long Beach, San Bernardino City, Santa Ana, Sacramento City, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Oakland unified school districts.

One of the report’s key findings is that most of America’s largest districts only face modest competition for students — meaning that the majority of students do enroll in district-run schools. Additionally, the report found that in the last decade, most large districts had increasing competition, though it was modest.